Handicapping the BB13 'Race'
I thought I'd handicap the BB 'race' for everyone. Every season it's always an interesting thing to attempt.
I have played poker my whole life, knowing and processing odds is natural and I like to factor in game theory approaches when adjusting these odds. Explanation & interpretation follows the odds if you're curious... Still, the worst thing to figure out is the JURY VOTE, it can be maddening and confusing, so that's usually the biggest wild card (strength of appeal to Jury @ F2). I don't really have a "bitterness coefficient" for those Jury members but I'm working on it ;-) (J/K).
So here you go:
100-1 Brendon: There is absolutely no Jury scenario that works for him. Period. He is too much of a threat comp-wise, is extremely hard to like and harder to root for.. He'll be lucky to see F6.
50-1 Kalia: Not well liked inside or out, does not seem to be that strong or that motivated, and even with furniture floating potential, does not have the Jordan-type quality to turn that into votes. I see virtually no scenarios that truly work for her getting over both the competition humps & appealing to Jury with a real game resume. A complete game/casting bust.. Good odds for F5, but terrible odds for F1. Just.. no.
35-1 Porsche: I have a hard time envisioning any scenario where she pulls it off, but there are some, and most involve Brenchel dominating & then a lucky break for Porsche around F4. Still, she is disliked.. not playing.. aligned with herself, but in a sad, boring way.. Grodner will dispose of her when it's time. Mark it down.
29-1 Returning HG: Better chance than Brenda, Kalia or Porsche.. haha! Still, it would probably be a Regulator (or Jeff) and the re-aligned house would quickly send them out. "Revolving Door Plan." It's not unthinkable but they would need to be extremely lucky as well as very tough either socially or competition-wise.
18-1 Rachel: Queen Vegas is at it again, and this time is 5x more determined to win everything and steamroll everyone. Needless to say it's a resume to win, social game or not, if you can win this much. Still, she will struggle to get votes against either of JeJo, a Lawon or Shelly or Daniele, with the likely Juries we'll see for them. No joke, her odds depend largely on how sympathetic Brendon's horror can make her look. She can handle the comp part, she just doesn't even grade below-average in the categories she'd need to (social, composure stuff) to earn better than light outside odds.
11-1 Jeff: He's got some of what it takes to win, but will be too much of a threat to earn serious status. The dramatic, must-evict-Jeff campaign of Dani has taken a toll on his threat level. He is a clear target going forward and is almost in more danger than even Dani, since Dani will be more appealing as a floater partner at the F10 mark where the game opens up a bit. While Jeff is liked some and disliked some, he could pull out a Jury win, he just will have incredible obstacles to getting there. He's gonna need to take a page from Hayden, last year's winner, and play a more mellow social game that endears people to him. His stress level only rises and this only hurts him further.
10-1 Daniele: Only a tiny bit better, Daniele is also extremely under the gun. The more she's latched on to Dominic and almost acted like the Vets couldn't see what she was doing, the more she's buried herself and her chances. I just don't think it's as bad as some say. She has shown more determination in her social game this year, and is one of BB's all-time most feared competitors. All you have to do to set her off is vote out her flirtmance. The question is, will the combination of Brenchel/JeJo comp strength and some string-pulling in there prove too much? We think so. She's still not a bad bet, though - watch Brenchel's edit. The worse they get, the more they will play up Dani's crusade against them. And if Jeff's edit turns sour ('giving him the Hardy'), Dani would be in a prime spot to be edited as a savior from these doucher guys etc etc. Or edited as "Showmance Scorned." Don't count her out, but don't get your hopes up is where 10-1 is.
8-1 Lawon: He has begun to impress me and several others with starting to understand the game, take it seriously where needed, and still use his smokescreens to stay under the radar. The "F2 factor" is strong with him...He's fairly well liked by Team showmance and will be the sole surviving Regulator (think Drew, 4 Horsemen or Zach, Mrs. Robinson alliance or Will...CT)... to me, I see it as a strong position. The momentum tends to shift before the entire alliance is out, leaving the best social player or least-offensive etc as a good long-shot. He will need to come up with comp skills, determination & a big move or two, but you can never count out a likable guy that's more getting the hang of it week 3/4. When it's his "turn" to go from the newbies side, I think that's when the real fracture will begin because Lawon is less of a threat and more personable.
7-1 Adam: There is an element of what Lawon's doing as well, being more likable...to me, its like a competition in there. Adam is believed to be throwing comps, even has made deals with this factor and critically he's a fan who knows to just lay low with powerhouse characters running around playing russian roulette for high stakes. The appropriate response is something like either Lawon, Adam or Shelly has done. Take your pick on levels of exertion/floating/overplaying. Everyone has a different opinion here; my current take is that Adam is the middle of these key 3 newbies odds-wise.
5-1 Shelly: Now we're really talking. Shelly has swallowed up all of Dani's losses as gains. Now her position in the house is all the more important to JeJo/Brenchel. So with Dani thrust to the other side & in harms way, Shelly looks confident, commanding & in control. She has a way of burying people that makes them want to be buried again tomorrow, she's that tough, but it's also very early so she could be setting herself up for a Natalie BB11 or Ryan BB9 finish (mostly runs the house but loses F2). She could also be in grave danger of going @ 4, Erika BB4 style, after social gaming her way there but failing to crack a super-tough alliance at the end (either showmance). Still, she has an awareness almost on par with feed watchers sometimes which is scary. She is throwing comps like a champ, which is at least half the reason she's this high. Besides, she is a major contender as long as she doesn't run into the pitfalls that her game has created.
...and that leaves us with...
3-1 Jordan: Yes, that's right. It doesn't have to make as much sense as you think, because the only winner in that house again could have a clear path. Think about it: of the 4 in Team Showmance, she's the one who would possibly go last. Jeff would go before her even though she's just won HOH - that's a strong social profile. Shelly reports to her - that's even better since Shelly knows that if her game sets her up to fall on the sword, at least she'll have done so for her truly favorite player. Does she deserve to win twice? Probably not, but who can explain the mysteries of the Big Brother Jury? Her social game is excellent, she is much more informed this year (but not too much, as Shelly takes her temperature and feeds her the right-sized pieces), and she is very well-liked in and outside. Also highly likely to receive any AC/Wizard type stuff which only helps her chances. If the Showmance vs. 'Danis Army' blood starts flowing soon, Jordan could stand to benefit as Brendon, Rachel & Jeff are all more appealing targets and Shelly, pulling the strings in there, will make sure that remains the case. Jordan's strength is also a reason for the 'unusual' strength I've given to Adam or Lawon here, because those two could wind up beating Jordan in F2 if they play their cards right & the Jury decides to not do a two-time winner because they like the newbie. Because of how early the bloodbath should start here (F10, ensured by GK rule), it actually tends to leave us with a "feel-good F2..." based on my calculations. With that said, Jordan remains far and away the leader of the pack as far as long-term winning odds. That's even discounting the winner factor and bitter Jury, since she's been in a strong, ruling alliance rather than the outsider (BB11). Doesn't matter. She is in the top spot as of now.
..whew! *deep breath* So there you have it. Thanks for reading this far and I really hope you enjoyed it.