If Rachel takes Adam, I think Adam would definitely have Shelly, I don't think shelly will vote with jordan and jeff, I think she votes against rach no matter what. She plays VERY personally, and Rachels message to her totally offended her, you could tell. Also, one worrying factor, Shelly Dani and Kalia would be gossiping like crazy about Rachel, and Shelly can be VERY convincing in getting her way. I think people over estimate how much she wants to get back in good with JJ, and I don't think voting against rachel would really have any impact on JJS relationship. Also, do people remember Shelly? She might like JJ, but she is not their puppet, there is a difference.
I do think Rachel would get Kalia and Dani aginst Adam, who both will be fueling each others fire about Adams shitty game play in Jury house...and I think their disdain for Rachel will dissapate after being away from her for a few weeks...haha. However, Shelly's dislike of Rachel could really bite Rach in the ass....because Shelly could potentially get Dani and Kalia to vote against Rachel even if it is for Adam, however I don't necessarily think this would happen. Additionally, Adam could win them over depending on how well he does in the final questions, and how poorly Rachel does (I don't think Rachel will do well being put in front of the firing squad, she never has).
Also, I think Jeff will vote for Rachel no matter what....although he likes adam, after listening to Dani and Kalia vent about him, and hearing Jordan and Brendon's pleas, I think he will end up voting for her in the end.
In conclusion, I think she has a great chance against Adam, however it REALLY depends on the mood of the Jury, and who is the bigger target for trash talking (game play or personality).
I do think she will lose if Porsh wins P3. I believe Porsh will take Rachel no matter what, especially after their little celebration in the kitchen. If she didn't, there is no way she would get Rachel or Brendons vote after that kind act/lie. And I think Adam, who is the deciding vote in this senario, would vote for P is she won P3 (he has said this now to both Prsh and Rach, respectable....but geez adam, some game play is in order to make at least $50K...you big dummy!!!! Who in their right mind would take you if they know they have your vote if they win, and you are the deciding vote.)
So in the end, I think Rachel has to win P3 in order to win. I used to thnk she would have a better chance if she took Adam....but from the sounds of it, she isn't, and Adam just told her he would vote for her if she wins P3, so really no incentive to take him?!?! Now, maybe taking Adam is the more risky choice.....changes day by day....haha.