After puttering along for two months on The Amazing Race, Gretchen announced that she had suddenly decided to step up and WIN this thing. What if, in spite of all we've seen to the contrary, Caryn makes a similar decision on Survivor?

What must Caryn do to win? Keep Gregg in the game! Here's why.

Right now we need four votes (or a tie breaker) to vote someone off. Any of the six persons COULD muster those four votes. But... what is the balance of power once we're down to five?

The three women are powerless. That is, explicitly, each of their strategies. It worked for Amber; it worked for Sandra. (I'm stretching a bit, but you get the idea.) The power, therefore, is in the hands of the three men.

If Gregg remains in the picture, the power is split two men to one. Right now it's Gregg versus Tom and Ian... but that could, of course, change. The *vote* is three to two, but the *power* is two to one. We still have room to maneuver.

What if Gregg is out of the picture? The power is in Tom and Ian's hands, pure and simple. Tom, Ian and Katie are the final three. If you're Caryn who's suddenly decided to pull a Gretchen, fourth place is no longer good enough.

Therefore... for Caryn to survive, Gregg must NOT be voted out.

So... from Caryn's standpoint, who must go?

Suppose for the moment that Tom, Ian, and Katie are a solid bloc. Caryn daren't dump Gregg. The best Gregg, Jenn, and Caryn can do together is force a tie. (And that might in fact be her best move.)

What if Caryn bows to the inevitable and agrees to dump Jenn? Does she have hope for better than fourth? Yes she does, because Gregg is still in the game. Gregg, Caryn, and any of the other three could turn on one of the other two, depending on who wins immunity.

Now we're down to four, and those four include Gregg and Caryn. Gregg *does* have a fair chance at winning immunity. Caryn *does* have a fair chance of being retained to the final three as less threatening than Katie, Tom, or Ian.

Now we're down to three, including Gregg and Caryn. If the third person is Katie, Caryn has a good shot at making the final two. If the third person is either Tom or Ian, it's quite likely that Caryn will be in the final two regardless of who wins immunity.

For either Jenn or Caryn to stay in the game, Gregg MUST remain in the game. If Gregg leaves this week, I really think both Jenn and Caryn are the next two to go. Sure, they could ally with any of the other three to dump Tom or Ian, but why would any of the other three put up with that? With Gregg gone they have a solid lock on final three.

With Gregg gone, could Tom conspire to dump Ian, or Ian conspire to dump Tom? Absolutely. That immunity necklace will be "worth playing for." Knocking *two* men would be to Caryn's advantage.

Could Caryn conspire to remove Gregg AND Ian? She could, and the previews imply she might do just that. The threat of a tie vote could prove to be the precise leverage she needs.

Unfortunately, I don't see it that way. When there's a threat of a tie vote, all too often, that swing vote gets blindsided by EVERYBODY. In fact, that's how I'm expecting this week to play out... as with Steph, Caryn will be gone by the 5 to 1 vote. Jenn needs her gone; Katie needs her gone; Gregg needs to keep himself in the game.

I don't think the women have the power to vote the men out. I think each of the women needs one of the men to bring her to the final two. And, therefore, each of the three women needs the other two gone.

I don't think the three men will vote all of the three remaining women out. That is, I don't expect the final three to actually be Gregg, Ian, and Tom. I'd be ecstatic with that outcome, but I don't think it's going to happen.

Meanwhile, from the preview, it looks like the immunity challenge might be shooting the gun like before. That requires eye/hand coordination, no puzzle solving ability, and zero physical strength. What if Caryn got lucky? Jenn's gone; Gregg's scrambling, and needful of Caryn's remaining presence.

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