Fuggybootnling's thoughts on Week 7 of Survivor All Stars
"It's stuff on the internet. Like people predicting who wins. It's always wrong." - Mark Burnett
Well folks, it's time to write a spoiler article.
*WARNING...I mean hardcore spoiling discussion here. If there's anything here you haven't heard before? Well...that's life. Don't read on.*
Just to recap what we know...
- ChillOne's intel was certainly wrong about Ethan going first, or early, but so far all of the people he said would be final seven - Alicia, Shii Ann, Tom, Rupert, Jenna, Rob and Amber - are still in the game, and pretty firmly entrenched there, at least for the time being.
- Snewser has said since before Episode One that the final three would be two women and a man, and the final two a man and a woman.
- Lex's wife Kelly was apparently told to get ready for a trip to Panama (obviously for the traditional "family visit" tearjerker episode) only to be told at the last minute she didn't need to go. Typically, this challenge occurs with six people left (they pushed it up in the Pearl Islands, probably to have the two teams of three challenge at the F6). The family challenge occurred on Day 31 of Marquesas, and Tammy was voted out Day 30. Nevertheless, they still flew her fiancé down there, just in case she did stay in the game. If Lex left at the F7, then Kelly probably still would have made the trip. So I'm thinking this pretty much pegs Lex as finishing in 8th place.
- A photograph of Kathy in a blue buff has been circulating around the web for weeks, and blue is going to be the merged tribe color. It could mean she finishes 10th, right after they will likely merge, but I kinda doubt she would pose in a buff color she wore for only like a day or so. So she's probably 9th.
- That leaves Ethan and Jerri, who have had thumbs down on Snewser's boot list since before episode one. If it stays a team situation (as the vidcaps would appear to show, with teams facing off against one another in two challenges) then it simply doesn't make any sense for Mogo Mogo, who would them be down two people, to boot a strong competitor like Ethan over the annoying and weaker Jerri. So likely Jerri goes next week, Ethan the week after.
So that's the spoiler outlook...now let's consider the show itself.
I could see right off the bat in episode one that Chapera was going to dominate. After the challenge, Burnett took us to their camp, where normally the show focuses on the losing tribe exclusively. Rob gave a confessional saying "You couldn't put together a more misfit group of Survivors from seven seasons." Amber was shown saying "We FINISHED FIRST on the first Survivor All Star challenge!" No one else said anything of consequence in that scene. So there you go...not only highlighting the dominant tribe, but the two players destined to go the furthest in that tribe.
We've seen other references to unity at Chapera. Alicia said after the dissolution of Saboga "We've going to kick the green team's ass." We had Kathy last week commenting on how much fun Chapera were having. And tons of other passing references to their strength as a team, mostly stated by Amber and Rob.
Meanwhile, what is the motif at the rival tribe, Mogo Mogo? This is going to sound sick, but I'll tell you what it is - cancer. Think about it...aside from Jenna Morasca leaving as an obvious reference, that same episode had Kathy commenting that Jenna's dolor was "like a cancer eating away at the tribe." When the time came to vote out Rich, Colby commented on two separate occasions that voting out Rich was like "cutting out the cancer." Finally, what has been the dominant creature shown in associative editing at Mogo Mogo? Crabs, of various types. Crabs=the astrological symbol of cancer. It's a really crappy choice of a metaphor, but I'm starting to see it more and more.
Hmmm...fits pretty well, doesn't it? So my prediction for the rest of the series...
Jerri - Mogo Mogo will lose the Immunity, realize they booted Colby too soon, and now it's come back to haunt them. They won't make the same mistake twice, and boot out a weaker player/annoyance with Jerri.
Ethan - They merge. Chapera has a 6-4 advantage on Mogo Mogo, and it's Pagonging Time!!! Ethan, being as strong as he is plus a former winner, is toast...burnt toast even. He's been on borrowed time all along.
Kathy - It would make logical sense to vote out Lex at this point, since he is CERTAINLY no slouch at the challenges, but either he wins Immunity, or Tom makes a plea to spare him on behalf of his Africa pal, OR Kathy is ferreted out as trying to switch sides and goes for that reason.
Lex - He's too dangerous Immunity-wise...especially if he wins the episode before. It's his time to take the Walk of Shame.
Now...Chill One got the sense from his intel that he heard the names not just randomly, but in order of their exit. So, going by that...
Alicia - It's really too bad that at the final ten she won't see she has no natural allies on Chapera, and force a tie...she'd be in a much better position. Anyway, either Shii Ann will win Immunity, or Chapera will realize they're better off getting rid of super woman Alicia sooner rather than later, as Shii Ann is no threat.
Shii Ann - Completes the Pagonging. Rob has built too strong an alliance with Tom to turn on him at this point
Tom - This one is a head scratcher. It should be clear to all that Tom is the swing vote here, and it would make much more sense for Rob and Amber to gather him under the original Chapera banner and go to the final four. What may happen is that Jenna will go to Rob and Amber, and say we'd all be better off without two strong powerhouses like Rupert and Tom around...there's a certain logic in that, though flawed.
Rupert - Anyway, next is Rupert...too strong, makes total sense.
Jenna - She goes a long way, but needs Immunity in the end...and can't pull it out. I'm guessing Rob wins, somehow.
Amber and Rob final two - BOTH are getting major winner's editing...I think it will be a close vote.
It will be interesting to see just how close I am. Having read spoilers since about Africa on, this is far and away the most cut and dried season I've ever seen in terms of prognostication. Even the infamous ChillOne spoiler only really pegged the final four, and even so turned out to be slightly wrong (Christy going is still the #1 Shot Heard 'Round the Spoiler World to me...NO ONE called that, not even Snewser!)
The funny thing is...I don't WANT to be right on all this! I want some unpredictability, some surprises, some guesswork. Every other spoiler season has had this...where there is some guessing within the framework of generally accepted spoiler information. And there could still be a fair amount - it could be Ethan next then Jerri (though I doubt it) or Lex then Kathy, and Chill One's order could be off, plus there is the weird situation of Tom going at the final five...it doesn't make complete sense. So there is hope for some quirks here and there.
But to me everything is screaming a Rob and Amber final two. They have obviously been flirting with each other, whether strategically or genuinely, for weeks now, and if this plotline was due to end anytime soon, we would have seen much more of it up until now. Instead, it was introduced in the first episode (when it could easily have been slipped in later, if it suited Burnett) and has unfolded very slowly and deliberately, like a good meal to savor in various courses rather than giving us a big plate and leaving it at that. I think we're only midway through the Romber story...as were are only midway through the series.