There is a lot of uncertainty in the house (and on the Boards) right now about who is going to be leaving this week. Many see CT as deciding votes this week so I thought it would be wise to see what would benefit them. Here are some scenarios:

1) Veto is inconsequential this week, Coup D'Etat is not used
ERIKA and DANIELLE are nominated.

Facts to Consider:
- Erika is a 'secret' member of CT
- Erika is Mike's lover outside of the house OR Mike's showmance
- Danielle is in the Legion of Doom with CT
- CT is aligned with Janelle and Howie and they both want Danielle out
and know that if CT votes with them Danielle is gone.

This is a very complicated scenario for CT. It has negative repurcussions for them no matter what they do. If they vote to evict Danielle they would have firmly thrown their lot in with Janelle and Howie, and everyone in the house will know it. James will be livid and scared: NOT a good combination. That move will almost force him to return to the S6 fold, and he'll be out for CT blood. They instantly make themselves a target of Marcellas and Chicken George as well, as they will be terrified of the new CT + S6 alliance. With this move they do get to keep Erika, who may be able to take over leadership of the 'Float Herd' and point them at Janelle, which could buy them weeks. They also gain Janelle and Howie as allies for a few weeks at least.
If they vote to evict Erika they keep the Legion of Doom intact. This guarantees that Danielle will keep the 'Float Herd' and James pointed directly at Janelle. It will also make it painfully clear to Janelle and Howie that they are completely isolated and they will take a 'US vs THEM' mentality. Since CT are the ones who most recently screwed them over they may be their first targets. If Mike or Will throw a vote to evict Danielle in this scenario it could put James in a really good position as he could convince Howie and Janelle that he voted with Janelle's wishes (even though he didn't) and could maintain his alliance with Howie and Janelle as well as the LOD. Will or Mike could also claim to Janelle and Howie that their CT colleague 'betrayed them'if one of them throws a vote to save Erika, maintaining a good relationship with Janelle and Howie.. but I don't see this one as being viable as they would have to sever ties with each other.
CT would likely NOT like to see this scenario as the final one on Thursday! (UNLESS, by some masterful manipulation techniques, Will manages to remain in Janelle and Howie's good graces and convince them that CT is still allied with them against the 'Float Herd'if they vote to evict Erika. This would guarantee that they would not be targets the following week. This is a VERY remote possibility)

2) Veto is inconsequential this week, Danielle wins Coup D'Etat.
JANELLE and HOWIE are nominated.

Facts To Consider
- Danielle is allied with CT and James in the LOD
- CT is allied with Janelle and Howie
- The entire rest of the house wants Janelle gone.

This is also not a good scenario for CT. In this scenario I cannot think of one possible sub-scenario where Janelle would stay, regardless of what CT did. The votes simply wouldn't be there to save her (James, George and Marcellus would vote to evict Janelle. That is enough for a tie and Danielle sends Janelle home). Danielle could then point the 'Float Herd' and James directly at CT. There wouldn't be any other 'big' threat left. She wouldn't need to do it the next week, but she would do it before Final 4. Howie would be furious and would join with CT (and James) to go after Danielle. James would likely try to sway him into going after CT, but I'm not sure how effective he would be in convincing him of that. Unfortunately Howie isn't nearly as beneficial an ally to CT as Janelle would be. He seems unable to win anything this year. The only advantage CT could gain from him is if they encourage him to go "Busto' on Danielle and she gets so annoyed / angry she targets Howie first. In this scenario there is a SLIM possibility that Danielle and James stay true to their word and they make a run with CT for Final 4.

3) Veto is used, Coup D'Etat is not used.
GEORGE and DANIELLE are nominated.

Facts to Consider:
- Danielle is allied with CT in the LOD
- CT is allied with Janelle and Howie
- Janelle and Howie want Danielle evicted and know if CT vote with
them Danielle is gone.

This is a very similar scenario to Scenario 1. The consequences of evicting Danielle are the same for CT. Evicting George however, has some added benefits over those of evicting Erika. Erika is a stronger competitor (when she chooses to be) and is nominally allied with CT. When the time came CT could use her to help them against Danielle and James. It would also eliminate an ally of Danielle's as I don't think George would ever ally with CT.

4) Veto is used this week. Coup D'Etat is not used.
GEORGE AND ERIKA are nominated.

Facts to Consider
- Erika is a 'secret' member of CT
- Erika is Mike's lover outside of the house OR Mike's showmance
- George is allied with Danielle in the Float Herd.

This would be a good scenario for CT. It keeps both Janelle and Danielle in the game and gunning for each other. It also allows them to continue to play both sides against each other, keeping the target off themselves. In this scenario it really doesn't matter who goes, although it would benefit CT to keep Erika over George as she is nominally allied with CT and George's allegiance is firmly to Danielle.

5) Veto is used. Coup D'Etat is not used.
MARCELLUS and ERIKA are nominated.

Facts to Consider
- Erika is a secret 'member' of CT
- Erika is Mike's lover outside of the house OR Mike's showmance
- CT are allied with Janelle and Howie

This scenario is another one that could be potentially damaging to CT. Both CT and James have lobbied hard to have Marcellus put up this week so they could vote him out. Janelle has remained firm that she doesn't want Marcellus to leave and so has resisted nominating him. If the veto is used and he does go up CT would likely be pressured by Janelle and Howie to vote Erika out. This would essentially be a test of CT's loyalty by Janelle and Howie. They know that Erika would be leaving if CT voted with them. The unknown factor in this scenario is what Danielle and James would want to do. It is unknown if their loyalty is greater to Marcellus or to Erika. If the other LOD members want to evict Erika then CT is in a good position. Danielle and Janelle are both still in the game and both of them still think CT is completely loyal to them. CT could continue to play both sides against each other, keeping the target off themselves for a few more weeks.
If James and Danielle decide they want Marcellus evicted however, then things get trickier for CT. If they vote with the LOD and evict Marcellus then Janelle and Howie know that CT is not loyal to them. Howie and Janelle will then know that they are completely isolated and will go into 'US vs THEM' mode (In this scenario James may be still seen as an ally to Howie and Janelle depending on how he voted / how Janelle and Howie THINK he voted). As CT screwed them over most recently they may target them first. On the plus side, CT get rid of Marcellus, a player who has been actively campaigning against CT from Day 1.
If CT side with Janelle and Howie and vote to evict Erika then the perception of the house will be that CT and Janelle and Howie are a new alliance of 4 (or possibly 5, depending on how James is viewed). In this case CT will have made enemies of Danielle and James, and Danielle will turn the Float Herd on them. Janelle would likely still be the Number 1 target but Will and Mike would be 2 and 3 for sure. This sub-scenario is not good for CT as it forces them to choose a side earlier then they would like to.

5) Veto is used. Coup D'Etat is not used.
MIKE and DANIELLE are nominated.


Facts to Consider
- Mike is a member of CT (the only fact that matters here)

This is a very complicated scenario as it is not clear how it would turn out (It would appear Will and Howie would vote for Danielle to go. Marcellus, George and James would vote for Mike to go. It would hinge on Erika and who she is more loyal to. There is also a small possibility that James could convince Janelle to evict Mike in the case of a tie) If Danielle was evicted it would put CT in a VERY good position! CT could easily stay allied with Janelle and Howie and have them remain fixated on the Float Herd, with Marcellus the new Public Enemy #1. James would also likely remain allied with CT in the LOD (as well as with Janelle and Howie in the S6 alliance). The Float Herd would likely continue to see Janelle as the biggest threat to them (with urging from Erika and likely James as well). CT is not seen as a target for some time.
If Mike is evicted it still leaves Will in a good position. It may even leave him in a better position as he will be seen as a 'lone wolf' who is not a threat as he has no allies. Janelle and Howie would continue to work with him and would target Danielle. Danielle and James would continue to work with him and target Janelle. Erika would likely try to stay aligned with him since she is the 'secret' member of CT. The Float Herd would ignore him, seeing, rightfully, that Janelle and Howie are bigger threats to them.
Overall, this is not a bad scenario for CT or Will. It could be not so good if you're a Mike Boogie fan though!

Those are the most realistic scenarios. There is the remote possibility that if the veto is used James or Mike will be put up against Erika. I didn't analyze these scenarios as both are exremely complicated and extremely UNLIKELY to happen. Of course its also possible that anyone wins the Coup D'Etat and overthrows the HOH. I wouldn't count on anyone using it unless they were on the block though, with the possible exception of James (and even him I think would save it until the last possible week or until he was nominated and thought he had a chance of going). If Marcellus got the Coup D'Etat and was on the block he would put up Janelle and Howie, putting us into Scenario #2. Erika can't win the Coup D'Etat as she guessed the same thing as Danielle, but AFTER her. If she lied about that though and did, by some freakish chance, win the Coup D'Etat and was on the block she would nominate Janelle and Howie, putting us into Scenario #2. If George won Coup D'Etat and was on the block I have a feeling he would put up Janelle and Will. This would be a modified version of Scenario #2, with Will replacing Howie.
The only real interesting Coup D'Etat scenario from CT's perspective is if Mike or Will won it and Mike was on the block. I really don't have ANY clue what they would do in that case. I have a feeling that Will would not use it. Mike may, but anything he did with it would hurt CT in the long run as he would have no choice but to pick a side. My feeling is he would nominate Janelle and Howie, Janelle would leave, and Howie would come after CT with a vengeance.